The indirect impacts of nonpharmacological COVID-19 control measures on other infectious diseases in Yinchuan, Northwest China: a time series study.

BACKGROUND: Various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 continue to have an impact on socioeconomic and population behaviour patterns. However, the effect of NPIs on notifiable infectious diseases remains inconclusive due to the variability of the disease spectrum, high-incidence endemic diseases and environmental factors across different geographical regions. Thus, it is of public health interest to explore the influence of NPIs on notifiable infectious diseases in Yinchuan, Northwest China. METHODS: Based on data on notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs), air pollutants, meteorological data, and the number of health institutional personnel in Yinchuan, we first fitted dynamic regression time series models to the incidence of NIDs from 2013 to 2019 and then estimated the incidence for 2020. Then, we compared the projected time series data with the observed incidence of NIDs in 2020. We calculated the relative reduction in NIDs at different emergency response levels in 2020 to identify the impacts of NIPs on NIDs in Yinchuan. RESULTS: A total of 15,711 cases of NIDs were reported in Yinchuan in 2020, which was 42.59% lower than the average annual number of cases from 2013 to 2019. Natural focal diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases showed an increasing trend, as the observed incidence in 2020 was 46.86% higher than the estimated cases. The observed number of cases changed in respiratory infectious diseases, intestinal infectious diseases and sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases were 65.27%, 58.45% and 35.01% higher than the expected number, respectively. The NIDs with the highest reductions in each subgroup were hand, foot, and mouth disease (5854 cases), infectious diarrhoea (2157 cases) and scarlet fever (832 cases), respectively. In addition, it was also found that the expected relative reduction in NIDs in 2020 showed a decline across different emergency response levels, as the relative reduction dropped from 65.65% (95% CI: -65.86%, 80.84%) during the level 1 response to 52.72% (95% CI: 20.84%, 66.30%) during the level 3 response. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread implementation of NPIs in 2020 may have had significant inhibitory effects on the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases, intestinal infectious diseases and sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases. The relative reduction in NIDs during different emergency response levels in 2020 showed a declining trend as the response level changed from level 1 to level 3. These results can serve as essential guidance for policy-makers and stakeholders to take specific actions to control infectious diseases and protect vulnerable populations in the future.

Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. METHODS: We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. RESULTS: Our analysis demonstrated that the pre-national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Changes in the Incidence of Invasive Bacterial Disease During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, 2014-2020.

BACKGROUND: Descriptions of changes in invasive bacterial disease (IBD) epidemiology during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States are limited. METHODS: We investigated changes in the incidence of IBD due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group A Streptococcus (GAS), and group B Streptococcus (GBS). We defined the COVID-19 pandemic period as 1 March to 31 December 2020. We compared observed IBD incidences during the pandemic to expected incidences, consistent with January 2014 to February 2020 trends. We conducted secondary analysis of a health care database to assess changes in testing by blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture during the pandemic. RESULTS: Compared with expected incidences, the observed incidences of IBD due to S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, GAS, and GBS were 58%, 60%, 28%, and 12% lower during the pandemic period of 2020, respectively. Declines from expected incidences corresponded closely with implementation of COVID-19-associated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Significant declines were observed across all age and race groups, and surveillance sites for S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae. Blood and CSF culture testing rates during the pandemic were comparable to previous years. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs likely contributed to the decline in IBD incidence in the United States in 2020; observed declines were unlikely to be driven by reductions in testing.

Impact of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Pneumococcal Carriage Prevalence and Density in Vietnam.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented to contain SARS-CoV-2 have decreased invasive pneumococcal disease. Previous studies have proposed the decline is due to reduced pneumococcal transmission or suppression of respiratory viruses, but the mechanism remains unclear. We undertook a secondary analysis of data collected from a clinical trial to evaluate the impact of NPIs on pneumococcal carriage and density, drivers of transmission and disease, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Nasopharyngeal samples from children aged 24 months were assessed in three periods - one pre-COVID-19 period (n = 1,537) and two periods where NPIs were implemented with increasing stringency (NPI period 1 [NPI-1, n = 307], and NPI period 2 [NPI-2, n = 262]). Pneumococci were quantified using lytA quantitative PCR and serotyped by DNA microarray. Overall, capsular, and nonencapsulated pneumococcal carriage and density were assessed in each NPI period compared with the pre-COVID-19 period using unadjusted log-binomial and linear regression. Pneumococcal carriage was generally stable after the implementation of NPIs. In contrast, overall pneumococcal carriage density decreased by 0.44 log10 genome equivalents/mL (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19 to 0.69) in NPI-1 and by 0.84 log10 genome equivalents/mL (95% CI: 0.55 to 1.13) in NPI-2 compared with the pre-COVID-19 period. Reductions in overall pneumococcal density were driven by reductions in capsular pneumococci, with no corresponding reduction in nonencapsulated density. As higher pneumococcal density is a risk factor for disease, the decline in density provides a plausible explanation for the reductions in invasive pneumococcal disease that have been observed in many countries in the absence of a substantive reduction in pneumococcal carriage. IMPORTANCE The pneumococcus is a major cause of mortality globally. Implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic led to reductions in invasive pneumococcal disease in many countries. However, no studies have conducted a fully quantitative assessment on the impact of NPIs on pneumococcal carriage density, which could explain this reduction. We evaluated the impact of COVID-19 NPIs on pneumococcal carriage prevalence and density in 2,106 children aged 24 months in Vietnam and found pneumococcal carriage density decreased up to 91.5% after NPI introduction compared with the pre-COVID-19 period, which was mainly attributed to capsular pneumococci. Only a minor effect on carriage prevalence was observed. As respiratory viruses are known to increase pneumococcal carriage density, transmission, and disease, this work suggests that interventions targeting respiratory viruses may have the added benefit of reducing invasive pneumococcal disease and explain the reductions observed following NPI implementation.

Impact of mass rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 to mitigate Omicron outbreaks in China.

We analysed the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in containing the 2022 Omicron outbreak in China. The results show that the Rapid Antigen Test contributed to containing the outbreak, reducing the reproduction number by 0.788 (95% CI:-0.306, 1.880) in studied cities.

Methodology to Compare Twitter Reaction Trends between Disinformation Communities, to COVID related Campaign Events at Different Geospatial Granularities

With still ongoing COVID pandemic, there is an immediate need for a deeper understanding of how Twitter discussions (or chatters) in disinformation spreading communities get triggered. More specifically, the value is in monitoring how such trigger events in Twitter discussion do align with the timelines of relevant influencing events in the society (indicated in this work as campaign events). For campaign events in regards to COVID pandemic, we consider both NPI (Nonpharmaceutical Interventions) campaigns and disinformation spreading campaigns together. In this short paper we have presented a novel methodology to quantify, compare and relate two Twitter disinformation communities, in terms of their reaction patterns to the timelines of major campaign events. We have also analyzed these campaigns at their three geospatial granularity contexts: local county, state, and country/ federal. We have conducted a novel dataset collection on campaigns (NPI + Disinformation) at these different geospatial granularities. Then, with collected dataset on Twitter disinformation communities, we have performed a case study to validate our proposed methodology. © 2022 Public Domain.

Asthma admission among children in Hong Kong during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Multiple nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) had been introduced in Hong Kong during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The impact on asthma admission, which was closely related to viral infection, was of concern. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to identify the impact of NPIs on pediatric asthma admissions and their association with respiratory viruses. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational study to compare the difference in pediatric asthma hospital admission rates between pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. Information on demographics, nasopharyngeal specimen results, ventilatory support, intensive care admission, hospital stay duration, asthma control therapy, and previous admission episodes was collected. Weather parameters including temperature, rainfall, humidity, and air quality data that was reflected by the air quality health index were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 1808 pediatric asthma admissions were recorded during the pre-COVID-19 period while there were 62 admissions during COVID-19 period, among which 54 admissions from the pre-COVID-19 period and 4 admissions from COVID-19 period were excluded. Weekly pediatric asthma admissions per total pediatric admissions during COVID-19 was one-third of that during the pre-COVID-19 period (0.3% vs. 0.9%, p < 0.001). During COVID-19 period, a significantly lower percentage of respiratory virus isolates was noted (58.6% vs. 72.6%, p = 0.019). Poisson regression analysis showed that the COVID-19 period (odds ratio [OR] = 0.202, 95% confidence interval  [CI, 0.16-0.26]; p ≤ 0.001), summer vacation period (OR = 0.512, 95% CI [0.43-0.62]; p ≤ 0.001), and humidity (OR = 0.99, 95% CI [0.98-1.00]; p = 0.004) were independent protective factors for asthma admission. CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant reduction in pediatric asthma hospitalizations and respiratory virus isolates in the first year of COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong with the implementation of NPIs. Rhinovirus remained the key respiratory virus isolate. Incorporation of appropriate NPIs in long run could reduce virus infection-related pediatric asthma admission.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Outbreak Without Influenza in the Second Year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A National Sentinel Surveillance in Korea, 2021-2022 Season.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate whether respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (IFV) infections would occur in 2021-2022 as domestic nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are easing. METHODS: Data were collected from the Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System database. The weekly positivity rates of respiratory viruses and number of hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections were evaluated (January 2016-2022). The period from February 2020 to January 2022 was considered the NPI period. The autoregressive integrated moving average model and Poisson analysis were used for data analysis. Data from 14 countries/regions that reported positivity rates of RSV and IFV were also investigated. RESULTS: Compared with the pre-NPI period, the positivity and hospitalization rates for IFV infection during 2021-2022 significantly decreased to 0.0% and 1.0%, respectively, at 0.0% and 1.2% of the predicted values, respectively. The RSV infection positivity rate in 2021-2022 was 1.8-fold higher than that in the pre-NPI period at 1.5-fold the predicted value. The hospitalization rate for RSV was 20.0% of that in the pre-NPI period at 17.6% of the predicted value. The re-emergence of RSV and IFV infections during 2020-2021 was observed in 13 and 4 countries, respectively. CONCLUSION: During 2021-2022, endemic transmission of the RSV, but not IFV, was observed in Korea.

High burden of RSV hospitalizations in Germany 2021-2022.

BACKGROUND: Public health measures implemented to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the worldwide transmission of endemic respiratory viruses such as RSV, as well as other typical, seasonal, and viral respiratory pathogens. METHODS: From October 18, 2021 to March 31, 2022, RSV cases admitted to German pediatric hospitals were monitored via a newly established, national, Clinician-Led Reporting System (CLRS) that recorded patient age and type of respiratory support. A subanalysis of the first 4 months of the monitoring period was additionally performed. RESULTS: In October 2021, a total of 471 hospitalized pediatric RSV cases per day were documented by 67 reporting hospitals. By January 2022, this number dropped to three cases at 11 hospitals (median of reporting hospitals: 37 (11%)). During these months, the median of hospitalized children on general wards and intensive care units was 133 and 15, respectively. In the subanalysis conducted to examine the period October to January, an average of 3.6 ± 2.2 patients per hospital per day were hospitalized on general wards (median 4 cases; range 0.3-8 cases), whereas 0.4 ± 2.2 patients were on intensive care units (median 0.3 cases; range 0-0.9 cases), with 11.5% receiving respiratory support. The majority of patients were under 2 years old. CONCLUSION: The overall burden of out-of-season RSV cases was extraordinarily high in Germany in 2021-2022. The newly established CLRS may help evaluate and, therefore, better allocate local and national pediatric care resources.

Shift in Clinical Epidemiology of Human Parainfluenza Virus Type 3 and Respiratory Syncytial Virus B Infections in Korean Children Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Parainfluenza virus type 3 (PIV3) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) B epidemics occurred in South Korea in late 2021. We investigated epidemiological changes of PIV3 and RSV B infections in Korean children before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective study, we enrolled patients aged less than 19 years with PIV3 or RSV infection in four university hospitals from January 2018 to January 2022. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from the subject's medical records and analyzed for each virus. RESULTS: A total of 652 children with PIV3 were identified including three epidemics: 216 in 2018, 260 in 2019, and 167 in 2021. Among 627 RSV B cases, 169 were identified in 2017/2018, 274 in 2019/2020, and 115 in 2021/2022. The peak circulation of PIV3 and RSV B epidemics were delayed by 6 and 2 months, respectively, in 2021, compared with those in the pre-COVID-19 period. The median age of PIV3 infections increased in 2021 (21.5 months in 2021 vs. 13.0-14.0 in 2018-2019; P < 0.001), whereas that of RSV B infections remained unchanged (3.6-4.0 months). During the COVID-19 pandemic, less frequent hospitalization rates were observed for both PIV3 and RSV B infections, but more children needed respiratory assistance for RSV B infection in 2021/2022 epidemic (32.5%) than before (14.7-19.4%, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: We observed changes in the epidemiology and clinical presentation of PIV3 and RSV B infections in Korean children during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Communicating COVID-19: Associations between media credibility, health belief, and compliance with nonpharmaceutical intervention recommendations in the United States during a novel pandemic

The proven high mortality of COVID-19 prompted the use of local and national media channels to promote public awareness of COVID-19, increase public knowledge of symptoms, and cue the public to implement protective nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) behaviors. Because evidence shows use of media can effectively provide public health information and NPIs can effectively mitigate the spread of infectious diseases, this study focused on perceived media credibility and health behavior compliance by providing a snapshot of the perceptions and intentions of American adults. Specifically, the purpose of this study was to examine the association between perceived media credibility (PMC), health beliefs related to COVID-19 and NPIs, and willingness to comply with nonpharmaceutical intervention recommendations (WTC-NPI). The NPIs explored in this study include handwashing, social distancing, and face mask wearing. The study implemented a quantitative, cross-sectional survey design. The Health Belief Model guided the study to examine health perceptions and intentions to comply with NPI recommendations. Source Credibility Theory guided the study to examine media credibility's relationship with health belief and behavioral intentions. The study adapted Meyer's Credibility Index and Champion's Health Belief Model Scale to administer an online survey of 377 adults in the United States in June 2021. Additionally, the survey addressed partisanship, health status relative to COVID-19 comorbidities, and knowledge and interest of COVID-19 related information. Compliance was measured with a new variable, willingness to comply with nonpharmaceutical intervention recommendations (WTC-NPI), which comprises the initial uptake and persistence of a behavior. PMC was found to be positively associated with health belief, and health belief was found to be positively associated with WTC-NPI. PMC was found to have both a direct and indirect (mediated) relationship with WTC-NPI. Perceived severity was the only significant HBM mediator between PMC and WTC-NPI. However, partisanship emerged as a significant predictor of WTC-NPI. These results show the importance of establishing media credibility when using media for public health and risk communication. Moreover, the presence of predisposing factors continues to impact behavioral intention. The final results of the study yielded the development of the Perceived Credibility and Severity (PERCS) Model of Compliance. Use of the PERCS Model and the results of this study can guide public health professionals and health communication researchers in the development of informative and efficacious health recommendations to be conveyed in the media. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Vaccination strategy for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the limited supply condition: A mathematical modeling study.

To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, vaccines have been urgently approved. With their limited availability, it is critical to distribute the vaccines reasonably. We simulated the SARS-CoV-2 transmission for 365 days over four intervention periods: free transmission, structural mitigation, personal mitigation, and vaccination. Sensitivity analyses were performed to obtain robust results. We further evaluated two proposed vaccination allocations, including one-dose-high-coverage and two-doses-low-coverage, when the supply was low. 33.35% (infection rate, 2.68 in 10 million people) and 40.54% (2.36) of confirmed cases could be avoided as the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adherence rate rose from 50% to 70%. As the vaccination coverage reached 60% and 80%, the total infections could be reduced by 32.72% and 41.19%, compared to the number without vaccination. When the durations of immunity were 90 and 120 days, the infection rates were 2.67 and 2.38. As the asymptomatic infection rate rose from 30% to 50%, the infection rate increased 0.92 (SD, 0.16) times. Conditioned on 70% adherence rate, with the same amount of limited available vaccines, the 20% and 40% vaccination coverage of one-dose-high-coverage, the infection rates were 2.70 and 2.35; corresponding to the two-doses-low-coverage with 10% and 20% vaccination coverage, the infection rates were 3.22 and 2.92. Our results indicated as the duration of immunity prolonged, the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 would be delayed and the scale would be declined. On average, the total infections in two-doses-low-coverage was 1.48 times (SD, 0.24) as high as that in one-dose-high-coverage. It is crucial to encourage people in order to improve vaccination coverage and establish immune barriers. Particularly when the supply is limited, a wiser strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 is equally distributing doses to the same number of individuals. Besides vaccination, NPIs are equally critical to the prevention of widespread of SARS-CoV-2.

Properties of the Omicron Variant of SARS-CoV-2 Affect Public Health Measure Effectiveness in the COVID-19 Epidemic.

Nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical public health interventions are important to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. However, it is still unclear how the effectiveness of these interventions changes with the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) novel variants. This simulation study utilized data from Japan and investigated how the characteristic properties of the Omicron variant, which emerged in late 2021, influence the effectiveness of public health interventions, including vaccination, the reduction of interpersonal contact, and the early isolation of infectious people. Although the short generation time of the Omicron variant increases the effectiveness of vaccination and the reduction of interpersonal contact, it decreases the effectiveness of early isolation. The latter feature may make the containment of case clusters difficult. The increase of infected children during the Omicron-dominant epidemic diminishes the effects of previously adult-targeted interventions. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring viral evolution and consequent changes in epidemiological characteristics. An assessment and adaptation of public health measures against COVID-19 are required as SARS-CoV-2 novel variants continue to emerge.

Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Despite the vaccination process in Germany, a large share of the population is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we face the spread of novel variants. Until we overcome the pandemic, reasonable mitigation and opening strategies are crucial to balance public health and economic interests. METHODS: We model the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the German counties by a graph-SIR-type, metapopulation model with particular focus on commuter testing. We account for political interventions by varying contact reduction values in private and public locations such as homes, schools, workplaces, and other. We consider different levels of lockdown strictness, commuter testing strategies, or the delay of intervention implementation. We conduct numerical simulations to assess the effectiveness of the different intervention strategies after one month. The virus dynamics in the regions (German counties) are initialized randomly with incidences between 75 and 150 weekly new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (red zones) or below (green zones) and consider 25 different initial scenarios of randomly distributed red zones (between 2 and 20% of all counties). To account for uncertainty, we consider an ensemble set of 500 Monte Carlo runs for each scenario. RESULTS: We find that the strength of the lockdown in regions with out of control virus dynamics is most important to avoid the spread into neighboring regions. With very strict lockdowns in red zones, commuter testing rates of twice a week can substantially contribute to the safety of adjacent regions. In contrast, the negative effect of less strict interventions can be overcome by high commuter testing rates. A further key contributor is the potential delay of the intervention implementation. In order to keep the spread of the virus under control, strict regional lockdowns with minimum delay and commuter testing of at least twice a week are advisable. If less strict interventions are in favor, substantially increased testing rates are needed to avoid overall higher infection dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that local containment of outbreaks and maintenance of low overall incidence is possible even in densely populated and highly connected regions such as Germany or Western Europe. While we demonstrate this on data from Germany, similar patterns of mobility likely exist in many countries and our results are, hence, generalizable to a certain extent.

Understanding the Potential Drivers for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Rebound During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were widely introduced to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. These interventions also likely led to substantially reduced activity of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). From late 2020, some countries observed out-of-season RSV epidemics. Here, we analyzed the role of NPIs, population mobility, climate, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 circulation in RSV rebound through a time-to-event analysis across 18 countries. Full (re)opening of schools was associated with an increased risk for RSV rebound (hazard ratio [HR], 23.29 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.09-495.84]); every 5°C increase in temperature was associated with a decreased risk (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, .40-.99]). There was an increasing trend in the risk for RSV rebound over time, highlighting the role of increased population susceptibility. No other factors were found to be statistically significant. Further analysis suggests that increasing population susceptibility and full (re)opening of schools could both override the countereffect of high temperatures, which explains the out-of-season RSV epidemics during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet Another Potential Age-Old Nonpharmaceutical Intervention

Social conventions of the day kept Morisot from pursuing the same subject matter as her male counterparts, such as Monet and Renoir, who often painted popular sites of leisure around Paris. Because Morisot liked to paint outdoors―and frequenting such sites without a chaperone would have invited scandal―she instead depicted domestic scenes, landscapes, and portraits, stating, “It is important to express oneself, provided the feelings are real and are taken from your own experience.” According to exhibition notes from the Barnes Foundation, “Working women are a recurring subject in Morisot’s painting. October 19, 2021 The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Volume 27, Number 11—November 2021 About the Cover Yet Another Potential Age-Old Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Downloads Article ------------ RIS [TXT - 2 KB] Article Metrics Metric Details Related Articles Coronavirus Vaccine Breakthrough Infections ------------ Postvaccination MIS-A with No Prior Infection ------------ SARS-CoV-2 Associated with Large Public Gatherings ------------ More articles on Vaccine, Immunization Kathleen Gensheimer and Byron BreedloveComments to Author Author affiliations:

How Important Is Behavioral Change during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Mathematical Modeling Study.

How important is the speed and intensity of behavioral change due to government policies, such as enhanced social distancing or lockdown, when an emerging infectious disease occurs? In this study, we introduce a deterministic SEIR model considering the behavior-changed susceptible group to investigate the effect of the speed and intensity of behavioral change on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We used epidemiological data from South Korea and Italy for the simulation study, because South Korea and Italy were the first countries to report an outbreak of COVID-19 after China and the prevention and response policy of each government were similar during the first outbreak of COVID-19. Simulation results showed that it took approximately twenty fewer days in Korea than in Italy until 90% of susceptible individuals changed their behavior during the first outbreak. It was observed that the behavior-changed susceptible individuals reduced the COVID-19 transmission rate by up to 93% in Korea and 77% in Italy. Furthermore, if the intensity and speed of behavioral change in Italy were the same as in Korea, the expected number of cumulative confirmed cases would have been reduced by approximately 95%, from 210,700 to 10,700, until the end of the lockdown period. We assumed that behavioral change is influenced by the number of confirmed cases and does not take into account social and cultural differences, as well as the state of the healthcare system, between the two countries. Our mathematical modeling showed how important the high intensity and fast speed of behavioral change to reduce the number of confirmed cases in the early period of an epidemic are.

COVID-19 false dichotomies and a comprehensive review of the evidence regarding public health, COVID-19 symptomatology, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mask wearing, and reinfection.

Scientists across disciplines, policymakers, and journalists have voiced frustration at the unprecedented polarization and misinformation around coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Several false dichotomies have been used to polarize debates while oversimplifying complex issues. In this comprehensive narrative review, we deconstruct six common COVID-19 false dichotomies, address the evidence on these topics, identify insights relevant to effective pandemic responses, and highlight knowledge gaps and uncertainties. The topics of this review are: 1) Health and lives vs. economy and livelihoods, 2) Indefinite lockdown vs. unlimited reopening, 3) Symptomatic vs. asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, 4) Droplet vs. aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, 5) Masks for all vs. no masking, and 6) SARS-CoV-2 reinfection vs. no reinfection. We discuss the importance of multidisciplinary integration (health, social, and physical sciences), multilayered approaches to reducing risk ("Emmentaler cheese model"), harm reduction, smart masking, relaxation of interventions, and context-sensitive policymaking for COVID-19 response plans. We also address the challenges in understanding the broad clinical presentation of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. These key issues of science and public health policy have been presented as false dichotomies during the pandemic. However, they are hardly binary, simple, or uniform, and therefore should not be framed as polar extremes. We urge a nuanced understanding of the science and caution against black-or-white messaging, all-or-nothing guidance, and one-size-fits-all approaches. There is a need for meaningful public health communication and science-informed policies that recognize shades of gray, uncertainties, local context, and social determinants of health.

Impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Medical Use of Military Hospitals in Korea.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began in December 2019. While it has not yet ended, COVID-19 has already created transitions in health care, one of which is a decrease in medical use for health-related issues other than COVID-19 infection. Korean soldiers are relatively homogeneous in terms of age and physical condition. They show a similar disease distribution pattern every year and are directly affected by changes in government attempts to control COVID-19 with nonpharmaceutical interventions. This study aimed to identify the changes in patterns of outpatient visits and admissions to military hospitals for a range of disease types during a pandemic. METHODS: Outpatient attendance and admission data from all military hospitals in South Korea from January 2016 to December 2020 were analyzed. Only active enlisted soldiers aged 18-32 years were included. Outpatient visits where there was a diagnosis of pneumonia, acute upper respiratory tract infection, infectious conjunctivitis, infectious enteritis, asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis, atopic dermatitis, urticaria, and fractures were analyzed. Admissions for pneumonia, acute enteritis, and fractures were also analyzed. All outpatient visits and admissions in 2020 for each disease were counted on a weekly basis and compared with the average number of visits over the same period of each year from 2016 to 2019. The corrected value was calculated by dividing the ratio of total weekly number of outpatient visits or admissions to the corresponding medical department in 2020 to the average in 2016-2019. RESULTS: A total of 5,813,304 cases of outpatient care and 143,022 cases of admission were analyzed. For pneumonia, the observed and corrected numbers of outpatient visits and admissions in 2020 decreased significantly compared with the average of other years (P < 0.001). The results were similar for outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory tract infection and infectious conjunctivitis (P < 0.001), while the corrected number of outpatient visits for infectious enteritis showed a significant increase in 2020 (P = 0.005). The corrected number of outpatient visits for asthma in 2020 did not differ from the average of the previous 4 years but the number of visits for the other allergic diseases increased significantly (P < 0.001). For fractures, the observed and corrected numbers of outpatient visits and admissions in 2020 decreased significantly compared with the average of other years (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, outpatient visits to military hospitals for respiratory and conjunctival infections and fractures decreased, whereas visits for allergic diseases did not change or increased only slightly. Admissions for pneumonia decreased significantly in 2020, while those for acute enteritis and fractures also decreased, but showed an increased proportion compared with previous years. These results are important because they illustrate the changing patterns in lifestyle as a result of public encouragement to adopt nonpharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic and their effect on medical needs for both infectious and noninfectious diseases in a select group.

The missing season: The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on influenza.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, many have worried that the additional burden of seasonal influenza would create a devastating scenario, resulting in overwhelmed healthcare capacities and further loss of life. However, many were pleasantly surprised: the 2020 Southern Hemisphere and 2020-2021 Northern Hemisphere influenza seasons were entirely suppressed. The potential causes and impacts of this drastic public health shift are highly uncertain, but provide lessons about future control of respiratory diseases, especially for the upcoming influenza season.